New York State’s unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in September 2018, reaching its lowest level since June 1988, according to preliminary figures released today by the New York State Department of Labor. Contributing to this statewide rate drop was another monthly decline in New York City’s unemployment rate, which fell from 4.1% to 4.0% in September 2018, its lowest level on record (current records date back to 1976).

In addition, New York State’s private sector job count rose by 6,300, or 0.1%, to 8,189,800 In September 2018. Since the beginning of Governor Andrew M. Cuomo’s administration, New York State’s economy has added 1,095,700 private sector jobs and experienced employment growth in 80 of the past 93 months.

The State’s private sector job count is based on a payroll survey of 18,000 New York employers conducted by the U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. Monthly payroll employment estimates are preliminary and subject to revision as more data become available the following month. The federal government calculates New York State’s unemployment rate based partly upon the results of the Current Population Survey, which contacts approximately 3,100 households in New York State each month.

“New York State’s labor market continued to strengthen in September 2018. The statewide unemployment rate dropped to its lowest level in more than 30 years, while New York City’s rate reached an all-time low last month,” said Bohdan M. Wynnyk, Director of the New York State Department of Labor’s Division of Research and Statistics.

Note: Seasonally adjusted data are used to provide the most valid month-to-month comparison. Non-seasonally adjusted data are valuable in year-to-year comparisons of the same month – for example, September 2017 versus September 2018.

United States and New York State: August – September 2018

1) Jobs data (seasonally adjusted):

The table below compares the over-the-month change in the total nonfarm and private sector job counts in the United States and New York State in August-September 2018.

2) Unemployment rates (seasonally adjusted):

The State’s unemployment rate is calculated by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, using a statistical regression model that primarily uses the results of the Current Population Survey (CPS). The CPS contacts approximately 3,100 households in New York State each month. In September 2018, the statewide unemployment rate decreased from 4.2% to 4.1%. In addition, the number of unemployed New Yorkers fell over the month, from 408,900 to 397,800 its lowest level since May 2001.

United States, New York State and Metro Areas: September 2017 – September 2018

1) Jobs data (not seasonally adjusted):

The following table compares the over-the-year changes in the total nonfarm and private sector job counts occurring in the United States, New York State and metro areas within the State between September 2017 and September 2018.

Job highlights since September 2017:

• Thirteen metro areas in New York State added private sector jobs over the past year. The most rapid employment growth was in these metro areas:
  • Ithaca (+2.1%)
  • New York City (+1.9%)
  • Dutchess-Putnam (+1.7%)
  • Kingston (+1.6%)
  • Buffalo-Niagara Falls (+1.4%)
  • Rochester (+1.4%)
• Non-metro counties in New York added 1,600 private sector jobs over the past year.
• Over the past 12 months, two metro areas in New York State lost private sector jobs: Binghamton (-0.4%) and Elmira (-0.3%).

Change in jobs by major industry sector: September 2017 – September 2018

1) Jobs data (not seasonally adjusted):

The table below compares the over-the-year change in jobs by major industry sector in New York State occurring between September 2017 and September 2018.

Highlights among New York State sectors with job gains since September 2017:

• Private educational and health services added the most jobs (+45,100) of any major industry sector over the past year. Sector job gains were mostly in health care and social assistance (+42,600), especially ambulatory health care (+28,200).
• From September 2017 to September 2018, the second largest employment increase occurred in leisure and hospitality (+19,700). Most over-the-year job gains in this sector were in accommodation and food services (+15,800), especially food services and drinking places (+13,500).
• The third largest increase in jobs over the past 12 months occurred in construction, which saw its employment count grow by 14,700. Sector gains were centered in specialty trade contractors (+12,400).
• Over the past year, two industry sectors – other services and professional and business services – each added 9,600 jobs. Employment gains in other services were greatest in personal and laundry services (+5,000), while gains in professional and business services were largest in administrative and support services (+6,100).

Highlights among New York State sectors with job losses since September 2017:

• Over the past 12 months, no major industry sector in New York State lost jobs.

Unemployment Insurance Benefits: September 2018

1) Regular Unemployment Insurance:

For New York State, during the week that included September 12, 2018, there were 91,690 people (including 83,478 who live in the State) who received benefits under the regular Unemployment Insurance program.

In September 2018, New York State residents who received Unemployment Insurance benefits made up 21% of the total unemployed.

Note: The responsibility for the production of monthly estimates of state and metro area nonfarm employment by industry moved from the Division of Research and Statistics to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), starting with the March 2011 estimates. More detailed information on the change is available on the BLS web site.

Many economic data series have a seasonal pattern, which means they tend to occur at the same time each year (e.g., retail jobs usually increase in December). Seasonal adjustment is the process of removing seasonal effects from a data series. This is done to simplify the data so that they may be more easily interpreted and help to reveal true underlying trends. Seasonal adjustment permits comparisons of data from one month to data from any other month.

Labor force statistics, including the unemployment rate, for New York and every other state are based on statistical regression models specified by the U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. In New York State, payroll jobs data by industry come from a monthly survey of 18,000 business establishments. Jobs data by industry do not include agricultural workers, the self-employed, unpaid family workers or domestic workers in private households.

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