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November 15, 2018

NYS Unemployment Rate Dips to 4.0%, Matching All-Time Low

State Economy Adds 22,600 Jobs, Reaches New Private Sector Employment High

New York State’s unemployment rate fell to 4.0% in October 2018, matching its lowest level on record (last reached in May 1988), according to preliminary figures released today by the New York State Department of Labor. In addition, the number of unemployed New Yorkers fell in October, from 397,600 to 387,700, its lowest level since April 2001. There was also a 26,600 person increase in the state’s civilian labor force, the largest monthly gain recorded since March 2004. Current labor force data extend back to 1976.

In addition, New York State’s private sector job count rose by 22,600, or 0.3%, to 8,218,800 in October 2018, a new, all-time high. Since the beginning of Governor Andrew M. Cuomo’s administration, New York State’s economy has added 1,124,700 private sector jobs and experienced employment growth in 81 of the past 94 months.

The State’s private sector job count is based on a payroll survey of 18,000 New York employers conducted by the U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. Monthly payroll employment estimates are preliminary and subject to revision as more data become available the following month. The federal government calculates New York State’s unemployment rate based partly upon the results of the Current Population Survey, which contacts approximately 3,100 households in New York State each month.

“New York State’s labor market continued to expand in October as the State added 22,600 private sector jobs to reach a new, all-time high employment count. At the same time, the statewide unemployment rate fell from 4.1% to 4.0% in October, matching its lowest level on record,” said Bohdan M. Wynnyk, Director of the New York State Department of Labor’s Division of Research and Statistics.

 

Note: Seasonally adjusted data are used to provide the most valid month-to-month comparison. Non-seasonally adjusted data are valuable in year-to-year comparisons of the same month – for example, October 2017 versus October 2018.

 

United States and New York State: September – October 2018

1) Jobs data (seasonally adjusted):

The table below compares the over-the-month change in the total nonfarm and private sector job counts in the United States and New York State in September-October 2018.

Change in Total Nonfarm and Private Sector Jobs
September – October 2018
  Change in
Total Nonfarm Jobs:

(private sector + government)
Change in
Private Sector Jobs:
 
Net
%
Net
%
United States +250,000 +0.2% +246,000 +0.2%
New York State +22,000 +0.2% +22,600 +0.3%

 

2) Unemployment rates (seasonally adjusted):

The State’s unemployment rate is calculated by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, using a statistical regression model that primarily uses the results of the Current Population Survey (CPS). The CPS contacts approximately 3,100 households in New York State each month. In October 2018, the statewide unemployment rate decreased from 4.1% to 4.0%, matching its lowest level on record. In addition, New York City’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.0% in October 2018, remaining at its lowest level on record.


Unemployment Rates (%)*
*Data are preliminary and subject to change, based on standard procedures outlined by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  October 2018*September 2018October 2017
United States 3.7 3.7 4.1
New York State 4.0 4.1 4.7
New York City 4.0 4.0 4.4
NYS, outside NYC 4.0 4.1 4.9

 

United States, New York State and Metro Areas: October 2017 – October 2018

1) Jobs data (not seasonally adjusted):

The following table compares the over-the-year changes in the total nonfarm and private sector job counts occurring in the United States, New York State and metro areas within the State between October 2017 and October 2018.


Change in Total Nonfarm and Private Sector Jobs by Area
October 2017 – October 2018
  Change in
Total Nonfarm Jobs:

(private sector + government)
Change in
Private Sector Jobs:
 
Net
%
 
Net
%
 
United States +2,550,000 +1.7% +2,466,000 +2.0%
New York State +123,200 +1.3% +122,500 +1.5%
    Albany-Schenectady-Troy +5,000 +1.1% +4,800 +1.3%
    Binghamton +100 +0.1% +300 +0.4%
    Buffalo-Niagara Falls +6,400 +1.1% +6,300 +1.3%
    Dutchess-Putnam +2,500 +1.7% +2,600 +2.1%
    Elmira -800 -2.2% -800 -2.6%
    Glens Falls +200 +0.4% +200 +0.4%
    Ithaca +1,900 +2.9% +1,900 +3.3%
    Kingston +1,400 +2.2% +1,500 +3.0%
    Nassau-Suffolk +12,200 +0.9% +12,400 +1.1%
    New York City +67,900 +1.5% +68,600 +1.7%
    Orange-Rockland-Westchester +7,200 +1.0% +6,200 +1.0%
    Rochester +4,300 +0.8% +4,100 +0.9%
    Syracuse +3,600 +1.1% +3,500 +1.3%
    Utica-Rome +600 +0.5% +900 +0.9%
    Watertown-Fort Drum +400 +0.9% +400 +1.3%
    Non-metro Counties +1,500 +0.3% +1,600 +0.4%

 

Job highlights since October 2017:

  • Fourteen metro areas in New York State added private sector jobs over the past year. The most rapid employment growth was in these metro areas:
    • Ithaca (+3.3%)
    • Kingston (+3.0%)
    • Dutchess-Putnam (+2.1%)
    • New York City (+1.7%)
    • Albany-Schenectady-Troy (+1.3%)
    • Buffalo-Niagara Falls (+1.3%)
    • Syracuse (+1.3%)
    • Watertown-Fort Drum (+1.3%)
  • Non-metro counties in New York added 1,600 private sector jobs over the past year.
  • Over the past 12 months, one metro area in New York State lost private sector jobs: Elmira (-2.6%).

Change in jobs by major industry sector: October 2017 – October 2018

1) Jobs data (not seasonally adjusted):

The table below compares the over-the-year change in jobs by major industry sector in New York State occurring between October 2017 and October 2018.

Change in Jobs by Major Industry Sector
October 2017 – October 2018
*Educational and health services is in the private sector.
Government includes public education and public health services.
Sectors With Job Gains:
Educational & Health Services* +55,000
Professional & Business Services +15,900
Construction +15,300
Leisure & Hospitality +13,900
Other Services +13,000
Trade, Transportation & Utilities +6,900
Financial Activities +3,600
Government* +700
Manufacturing +200
 
Sectors With Job Losses:
Information -1,300

 

Highlights among New York State sectors with job gains since October 2017:

  • Private educational and health services added the most jobs (+55,000) of any major industry sector over the past year. Sector job gains were mostly in health care and social assistance (+50,600), especially ambulatory health care (+32,200).
  • From October 2017 to October 2018, the second largest employment increase occurred in professional and business services (+15,900). Most of the over-the-year job gains in this sector were in administrative and support services (+9,500) and professional, scientific and technical services (+8,400).
  • The third largest increase in jobs over the past 12 months occurred in construction, which saw its employment count grow by 15,300. Sector employment gains were concentrated in specialty trade contractors (+11,200).
  • Leisure and hospitality had the fourth largest increase in jobs (+13,900) between October 2017 and October 2018. Over-the-year sector gains were centered in accommodation and food services (+15,700), especially food services and drinking places (+12,200).

Highlights among New York State sectors with job losses since October 2017:

  • Information (-1,300) was the only major industry sector in New York State to lose jobs over the past year. Sector job losses were focused in publishing (-3,300).

 

Unemployment Insurance Benefits: October 2018

1) Regular Unemployment Insurance:

For New York State, during the week that included October 12, 2018, there were 87,084 people (including 79,045 who live in the State) who received benefits under the regular Unemployment Insurance program.

In October 2018, New York State residents who received Unemployment Insurance benefits made up 20% of the total unemployed.

Note: The responsibility for the production of monthly estimates of state and metro area nonfarm employment by industry moved from the Division of Research and Statistics to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), starting with the March 2011 estimates. More detailed information on the change is available on the BLS web site.

Many economic data series have a seasonal pattern, which means they tend to occur at the same time each year (e.g., retail jobs usually increase in December). Seasonal adjustment is the process of removing seasonal effects from a data series. This is done to simplify the data so that they may be more easily interpreted and help to reveal true underlying trends. Seasonal adjustment permits comparisons of data from one month to data from any other month.

Labor force statistics, including the unemployment rate, for New York and every other state are based on statistical regression models specified by the U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. In New York State, payroll jobs data by industry come from a monthly survey of 18,000 business establishments. Jobs data by industry do not include agricultural workers, the self-employed, unpaid family workers or domestic workers in private households.

 

See State and Area Job Data (opens in new window)
See Labor Market Overview (opens in new window)
See Jobs and Unemployment Fact Sheet (opens in new window)

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